Saturday, March 6, 2010

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE): Q1 Earnings Preview 2010

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter 2010 financial results after the market close on Tuesday, March 23, 2010. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings of 37 cents a share on revenue of $827.16 million. In the year ago period, the company posted earnings of 45 cents per share on revenue of $786.39 million.

Adobe Systems Incorporated operates as a diversified software company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It offers a line of creative, business, Web, and mobile software and services used by creative professionals, knowledge workers, consumers, original equipment manufacturers, developers, and enterprises.

In the preceding fiscal-fourth quarter, the San Jose, California-based company reported a GAAP net loss for the fourth quarter of $32.0 million or $0.06 per share, compared to GAAP net income of $245.9 million or $0.46 per share for the year-ago quarter. Excluding restructuring charges, stock options expense and other items, non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $206.8 million or $0.39 per share, compared to $320.9 million or $0.60 per share in the prior year quarter. Revenue fell 17% to $757.28 million from $915.30 million in the same quarter last year. Analysts, on average, expected the company to report earnings of $0.37 per share on revenue of $$752.54 million.

For the first quarter, the company anticipates revenue of $800 million to $850 million, GAAP earnings of $0.21 to $0.25 per share and non-GAAP earnings of $0.34 to $0.39 per share.

The company's sales have been helped by economic stabilization and recovery in technology market in recent months. Companies are increasing budgets for advertising and marketing materials that can be created with Adobe's software, while worldwide PC sales too have recovered. Adobe has been working very hard on the follow-up to CS4. Industry expect the publishing and design software maker to release CS5 suite in April 2010. The company sees a larger available market for its Creative Suite 5, and data and reviews point to a solid release of the highly anticipated product.

In February 2009, Adobe released to developers a test version of its upcoming Flash Player 10.1, which is designed to run well on smartphones and other mobile devices. According to a Strategy Analytics analysis from January 2010, more than 250 million smartphones that support the full Flash Player are expected ship by the end of 2012.

However, Adobe Flash is facing an onslaught of up-and-coming alternatives that could threaten the former's dominant status as the defacto rich-media platform online. The launch of Apple's iPad, which does not support Flash, has also heated up the debate on whether the Adobe platform is in danger of losing market share to competing alternatives.

The company's stock currently trades at a forward P/E (fye 27-Nov-11) of 17.15 and PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) of 1.38. In terms of stock performance, Adobe shares are up 41% over the past year.

Full Disclosure: None.
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