Saturday, February 5, 2011

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL): Q4 Earnings Preview 2010


American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, February 8, 2011. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings of 39 cents per share on revenue of $587.70 million. In the year-ago period, the company reported earnings of 14 cents per share on revenue of $464.00 million.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, engineering, design, and validation of driveline and drivetrain systems, and related components and chassis modules for automotive industry in the United States.

In the preceding third quarter, the Detroit, Michigan-based company's net income was $38.8 million, or 52 cents per share, compared to $19.6 million, or 35 cents per share, in the prior-year period. Revenue jumped 50% to $618.2 million from $409.6 million. Analysts, on average, expected the company to report earnings of 38 cents per share on revenue of $558.91 million.

Companies in the auto parts industry are benefiting from rising demand for vehicles. People postponed upgrading and replacing their cars during the recession; however, now the economy is looking up and both people and businesses have more disposable income. As a result car sales and repairs are increasing which is good news for the auto supply industry.

At its last earnings call in October,  Richard Dauch, co-founder, chairman and chief executive officer, said, "We are outperforming AAM's business plan for 2010 due to a recovery in market demand for full-size pickups and SUVs, as well as the impact of our ongoing actions to control operating expenses and sustain reductions in AAM's fixed cost structure."

Last month, AAM said that it expects full-year sales in 2010 to be around $2.28 billion. AAM anticipates to generate EBITDA ranging from $335 million to $345 million, and as a percentage of sales in the range of 14.5% - 15.0% in 2010. AAM expects full year sales in 2011 to be about $2.4 billion. This sales projection is based on the anticipated launch schedule of programs in AAM's new business backlog and the assumption that the U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of sales increases from about 11.6 million vehicle units in 2010 to about 12.5 million vehicle units in 2011. Also, the company expects to generate EBITDA ranging from $348 million to $360 million, and as a percentage of sales in the range of 14.5% - 15.0% in 2011.

In November, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings provided its estimate for new and incremental business backlog for the three-year period from 2011 to 2013 and said that this estimate supports its goal of achieving a sales target of $3 billion in 2013. The company also expects a compound annual sales growth rate of about 10% for the next three calendar years.From 2011 through 2013, the company's backlog of new and incremental business is estimated at $850 million in future annual sales, which represents an increase of over 20% from the company's previous three-year backlog for 2010 - 2012. AAM also said that the new and incremental business backlog estimate reflects its successful efforts to diversify the business by increasing its exposure to global growth markets, advancing its product portfolio, and growing its customer base. According to the company, over 50% of the estimated backlog is for customers other than GM. This includes new and expanded orders from multiple global premium vehicle manufacturers, including Audi, Chrysler, Daimler Truck, Mack Truck, Mercedes, Nissan, Saab, Scania, Volkswagen and others. The estimate also supports the company's goal of achieving an updated target of 40% non-GM sales by 2013. Further, AAM said that more than two-thirds of the estimated new and incremental business is for passenger car, crossover vehicle and commercial vehicle programs. Of the estimated backlog, over 60% is for programs sourced outside of North America, which supports the company's expansion in Brazil, China, India and Thailand, AAM noted.

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